The Slow Lane

More from Stewart...

2009-11-07T07:27:00.002-05:00

"This is the gold rapture. No prisoners will be taken. If you are a long term investor, the strategy now is to sit there in the corner and wait. Wait for much higher prices before selling anything. You need to decide who you are, where you sit on the investor-trader scale. Investors want to become traders on severe price weakness, and traders want to become investors into great strength like we have now."

Stewart Thomson
"Gold Starship: Family Reunion On Pluto?"

Full article here.

Le "trou du cul" du jour

2009-10-29T16:39:00.006-04:00

Galleon Paid Bankers Millions For Extra, Non-Public Info (MS, GS)
(article)

Exhibit E

2009-10-20T23:31:00.001-04:00

"However, taking the specifics of this market into account and the facts that gold has now decisively broken into $1,000 thus causing many new investors to enter the market and that the best part of the bull market (for juniors) is still ahead of us, makes me consider PM juniors as one of the best places to invest it."

P. Radomski
"Is the Junior Stock Sector Dead or Are These Companies Set to Outperform Once Again?"

Exhibit D

2009-10-20T23:28:00.000-04:00

"Certain junior mining/royalty companies will hit the mother-lode and experience dramatically greater increases in their stock prices than the average and the leverage-on-leverage benefit of warrants should cause some of the right warrants of the right mining/royalty companies to experience 5,000% or more. So "Does the Adens' $5,800 Gold Projection Suggests +5,000% Gains in Junior Equities?" In some cases it appears so!"

Lorimer Wilson
Does the Adens' $5,800 Gold Projection Suggests +5,000% Gains in Junior Equities?

Exhibit C

2009-10-20T23:25:00.001-04:00

"The leverage is always on the bottom side of the category scale, so I anticipate that the bottom half of Junior Producers and the viable companies in Gold Exploration entities to outperform the top half of Junior Producers and Major Producers as the price of gold continues higher in late 2009 and 2010.

History tells us this is how it has always happened, and I believe it will again."

Jim Sinclair

"The Shift Between Gold Share Categories"

Exhibit B

2009-10-20T23:22:00.002-04:00

"My thinking is that with gold now established in a clear bullish trend, this may be the time to buy the mining stocks."

Richard Russell, 321gold
October 15, 2009

Exhibit A

2009-10-20T23:18:00.002-04:00

Gold Juniors Geyser Time!
by Stewart Thomson

"...I think we're at that point right now. I seriously believe there is more leverage in junior gold stocks to gold bullion, right now, than there is with futures contracts. That's the power, that's the tool that is sitting right in front of you in your gold toolbox."

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_101409.html

Juniors on fyah...

2009-10-17T23:23:00.000-04:00

It's started...

Message from the universe...

2009-08-03T19:57:00.004-04:00

A friend of mine showed me some nuggets he had found in a stream recently, a stream that is known to host alluvial gold. Then two days later I found a hawk feather. The message from the universe is that gold is about to fly.

Hedgie Gets A Wedgie

2008-06-22T09:55:00.006-04:00

Ralph Cioffi, former investment bank Bear Stearns hedge fund manager, is escorted by law enforcement officials to a waiting car after being arrested in New York June 19, 2008


"Clang clang, go the jail guitar doors
Bang bang, go the boots on the floor
Cry cry, for your lonely mother's son
Clang clang, go the jail guitar doors"

From "Jail Guitar Doors" by The Clash

Level the playing field...

2008-06-18T13:21:00.000-04:00

Ready to go again...

2008-01-03T08:08:00.000-05:00

The 11/30 call was early, but still looks right to me...

Miner Contemplation

2007-11-04T10:50:00.000-05:00

Wayne Campbell writes on Silicon Investor:

"There was a blow off top from late 99 to March/April 2000 in the Nasdaq. Pigs were flying. Money could be made and kept by buying tiny momentum plays and then selling a bit into each absurd upday through Feb Mar and April.

Sikaman Gold turned Internet stock....300 million shares out had a 3D shopping "portal" where you could move your curser around a little boxes that represented stores. Click on the box and you went to the stores website. That was it. Stock went to a buck and stayed there for weeks. Advertised on the Superbowl that year (Those wierd blimp or scoreboard overlays). I had stock worth half a cent earlier and bailed at 7 cents in 1999, just ecstatic to get out with anything.

We could be ready for a mirror in the mining sector. Big, but risky money (buy high sell much higher....buy crap, sell insanely overpriced crap) may be able to be made again right here.

Nov and Dec are the set up months buy anything that sniffs of momentum.....sell into rallys starting Feb March....be all out by April fools day.

Mine the SI threads for potential momo plays. Watch for junior miners at the superbowl and the Air Canada Centre being renamed the Aurelian Canada Centre. Place your asks by thinking the stock will never hit that price, then double the price."

JER.v is breaking out on volume...

2007-11-01T15:04:00.001-04:00

PEZ.V - The Gift That Keeps On Giving

2007-10-19T13:16:00.000-04:00

I posted about Pediment Exploration a couple of times earlier this year (6/28, 7/25) as I saw some intriguing patterns developing on the chart. I thought that this was a good time to review what has happened since then. The stock is being recommended by a handful of newsletter writers, based primarily on the exploration success that they have had at their San Antonio project in Baja, Mexico.

There are several good sources of fundamental analysis of this company, so I will limit my comments. Suffice it to say that the chart below is a visual explanation of why I invest in the junior mining sector. It is a hit or miss game, but when a company hits big, the rewards can be staggering. I don't think Pediment is done yet. They are continuing to define the resource at San Antonio and are preparing to drill two more of their properties.

Impact Silver

2007-08-26T23:12:00.001-04:00

The weekly chart of Impact Silver is notable for a couple of things. The recent sell off shows how easily relatively small volume can chop a considerable amount of market cap off a stock. Now the stock is right at the uptrend line and also at the 100 week EMA. This area was support for the stock during the first wave down of this consolidation in the fall of 2006.

Looking back further, the stock consolidated for several months in 2005 after moving up steadily from mid-2004 to peak well above the long-term moving averages. The consolidation we are in now is a similar shape but much larger magnitude. The increase in volume over time corresponds to higher price levels and greater price swings on run-ups and corrections.

I don't worry too much about Impact Silver. They are a real company that is producing silver today and steadily increasing production. The market's perception of the company may vary wildly from one day to the next but the professionals running the company continue moving it forward regardless.

PEZ again...

2007-07-25T15:28:00.000-04:00

I posted a chart of PEZ.V back in June, when it looked like it was ready to finish consolidating. I am continuing to keep an eye on it as it is still showing encouraging signs:

Candente revisited

2007-07-25T08:03:00.000-04:00

I posted on Candente this past February as the chart was showing a strong set-up. The stock got a huge boost after listing on the Lima Stock Exchange in Peru and has been consolidating since. Recently the stock has begun another leg up and is now making new all-time highs.

I have followed this company for several years now and have had the opportunity to watch them build the company over that time. When Candente announced their intentions to proceed with developing Canariaco themselves, they were met with some skepticism that explorers could become mine-builders. As the project advances, the market appears to be starting to recognize their evolving status. Environmental and feasibility studies are underway and it is clear that this project will have relatively low start-up costs and very fast payback (less than two years at current copper prices).

Candente is also currently drilling their El Oro gold project in Mexico. The company has a 30% interest in the project and is working with Canaco to develop it. The area where Candente is drilling is the site of historical mining operations. This was the site of one of Mexico's most prolific gold mining areas and there are reasons to believe that a significant amount of ore still remains there.

A wild card that was recently added to the hand is the Tres Marias property in Peru. This property, like El Oro, hosted mining operations historically. Operations were conducted down to the 75-meter level, but all indications are that the mineralization continues below that level. The main vein runs north/south, has been mapped on surface for 1/2 a kilometer, traced for another 300 meters and is open in both directions.

Here are a couple of excerpts from the press release announcing the property:
"Silver values from surface sampling and historic mine dump piles have grades of up to 68.08 ounces per ton (oz/T) (2,334 grams per tonne (g/t))."

and

"The high sulphidation alteration zone extends along a ridge for one (1) km and includes lithologically and structurally controlled vuggy silica and hydrothermal breccias in various surface exposures. Anomalous gold values of up to 4.0 g/t were obtained from grab samples of the vuggy silica material."

Although the stock has had a great run so far this year, there is a lot of news in the pipeline that could continue to attract attention to this company. The stock is arguably undervalued just based on Canariaco alone, but significant results at El Oro will begin to provide Candente's precious metal assets with greater visibility.

Forum Uranium...

2007-07-08T20:40:00.001-04:00

Forum is representative of much of the junior uranium sector. The stock has gotten a 50% haircut in the April to July timeframe. Just a little off the top. Whoops. This is a speculative situation, but they have the right ingredients that are key to exploration success for any uranium junior: highly prospective portfolio of properties, top-notch geological talent, cash in the bank. Like many charts I have been looking at recently, this one appears poised to break out. We will see what happens next.

PEZ dispenser

2007-06-28T08:42:00.001-04:00

On the threshold...

2007-06-28T08:38:00.000-04:00

Stock of du jour

2007-06-22T17:36:00.001-04:00

JER Envirotech

2007-05-28T14:30:00.001-04:00

Sometimes I refer to certain small-cap stocks as "lottery tickets"...speculative, but with huge potential. I started following JER Envirotech (JER.V) three years ago. The missteps and management faux pas that have occured over that time period weave a tale of woe that has resulted in the stock selling at about the same price now as it was back then. That's the bad news.

The good news is that the company still has extremely viable products and they have completely overturned the management team and brought in industry professionals who are businessmen (as opposed to inventors and entrepreneurs). Despite the 3-years walk across a bed of nails/coals (take your pick), I think that the wheels are finally on the rails and things are coming together in the way that is required for the company to get traction, which is why I mention it now.

Thumbnail of the company:

- Wood-plastic composite products, using polypropylene and organic fibers such as sawdust, rice husk, palm fiber, etc.
- Technology was developed in conjunction with the Natural Resources Council of Canada. Canadian gov't owns the patents, company has an exclusive license to use them. This should discourage infringement by larger players.
- One product line consists of pellets that can be used as input to injection-molding applications (coat hangers, car parts, and on and on and on).
- The other product line is 4' x 8' sheets. This is the only company that can extrude WPC panels of that size. Also can produce variable thicknesses, depending on the application. Plywood is no good in tropical (think Asian) markets, due to insect infestation and rot. This stuff does not rot, but has performance characteristics that meet or exceed plywood. Due to deforestation in Asia, there ain't a lot of plywood there anyway. Cement panelboard is used in many applications where JER would compete. WPC panel board is cost-competitive to cement panels and has superior performance characteristics.
- The company has recently replaced the entire management team, but if you read through the bios of who they have brought in, it is clear that they are now building the RIGHT team to take this company to the next level. Earlier team were nice guys...but not businessmen. They just closed a non-brokered private placement to raise $2.6MM and are doing a brokered PP to raise another $5MM. This will give them the runway they need to execute their plan.

The stock is not likely to do anything for some time, certainly at least until they get the larger PP done. But NOW is the time to start doing DD on it if this is the kind of story that interests you. I bought into the company through a PP, before the company was public. The PPs they are doing now are at the same price level where I bought...three years ago. That stinks, but at least they are now headed in the right direction.

So...what is the potential? They are running trials with several companies that are testing the pellets and the panels for various applications (clothes hangars, car parts, building material, deck underlayment for yachts, for example). We need to see these trials turn into customer adoptions and then the revenue will start to ramp steeply. The company has production facilities that are operational in Delta, BC and Malaysia, with plants under construction in the Philippines and in planning in India.

During a conference call with the (new) CEO a couple of months ago, he said that he thinks that they can go from $3MM in revenue in 2007 (projected) to $30MM in 2008. If they can achieve a 10-fold increase in revenues within the next year and a half, then I think the stock will reflect it. Longer term, they are thinking much bigger numbers than that.

I bought the company because it was the most boring thing I could find. I was tired of companys with "exciting" products that were actually solutions in search of a problem. To me, this seemed like a no-brainer and it still does. Contrary to some popular opinion though, products do not sell themselves. It takes a village...ooops, no it takes the right management team to make it happen. I think the right team is now in place, but the market needs to see proof that they can execute their beautiful vision. This creates a window of opportunity for those who are seeking diamonds in the rough.

It's not without risk, but given the developments over the last few months, I feel that a large amount of risk has been mitigated and the markets for their products have not disappeared. All they need to do now is execute, execute, execute.

Michael Kiley 1958 - 2007

2007-04-25T15:01:00.000-04:00

May you rest in peace, bro.

Energy Fuels

2007-04-12T23:01:00.000-04:00

I got this chart from a friend. He called me up tonight all in a lather about what the chart was telling him. He did not know that:

- Resource Investor published an article this week that laid out the case for a 10X price target
- The CEO is ringing the bell at the TSX on Friday
- The web site has been completely overhauled
- The stock has been shorted in anticipation of a large number of shares coming off restriction

Let's see what happens tomorrow.